{"id":1680,"date":"2006-04-11T17:08:51","date_gmt":"2006-04-11T13:08:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?p=1680"},"modified":"2013-03-11T17:09:23","modified_gmt":"2013-03-11T13:09:23","slug":"the-date-of-beginning-of-a-war-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?p=1680","title":{"rendered":"The Date of Beginning of a War in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

FROM THE REDACTION <\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran
\n Territory: 1 648 km2
\n Population: 68 688 433 <\/p>\n

GDP (2005): 4.8%
\n Unemployment rate: 11.2%
\n Budget revenues (2005): 48.82 billion USD
\n Expenditure:
\n 60.4 billion USD
\n The country\u2019s debt:
\n 27.5% of the GDP
\n Oil production:
\n 4.979 million barrels a day
\n Oil consumption:
\n 1.425 million barrels
\n Oil export:
\n 2.5 million barrels a day
\n Natural gas production:
\n 79 billion m3
\n Natural gas export:
\n 3.4 billion m3
\n The Islamic Republic of Iran, or simply Iran, was called Persia till 1935. It is a country in the Middle East that is situated in the south-west of Asia. In the north Iran borders upon Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, in the east – upon Pakistan and Afghanistan, and in the west \u2013 upon Turkey and Iraq. It also borders upon the Persian Gulf at the intersection of which Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arabian Emirates are situated.
\n Throughout its history Iran had a very important geostrategic importance since it is situated in the middle of Eurasia. The country is a member of OPEC and OIC. An important role is attached to it in the international politics due to its huge reserves of energy resources.
\n Iranian economy is dependent on oil export. In spite of the reserves of various resources, the country\u2019s budget has permanent problems. Iran is the second largest OPEC country and exports 4-5 million barrels of oil a day, it possesses 10% of the world oil reserves. The country holds the second place in the world according to its natural gas reserves (the first one is held by Russia), however, Iran\u2019s economy is characterized by high unemployment and inflation indicators.
\n Iran\u2019s attempts to develop weapons of mass destruction have become the reason for the confrontation between it and the west, and the situation becomes more and more complicated and will soon reach its critical point.
\n We do not hold negotiations with anyone on the Iranian people\u2019s right (on uranium enrichment), and no one has the right to retreat\u201d, said the Iranian President in April. The Iranian side has turned out to be very stubborn and did not support the idea concerning the creation of a joint enterprise on the Russian territory and demonstrated a flat refusal to the Russian diplomacy that was trying to say its decisive word in this matter; the same position was expressed to the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammad el-Baradei and Chinese Foreign Minister\u2019s aide Zui Tiankai. Russia and China, the two countries that are permanent members of the UN Security Council, are opposed to imposing of sanctions against Iran and starting of military operations. Iran controls 23% of OPEC countries\u2019 oil reserves (in all OPEC member-countries control a third of the world oil production \u2013 30 million barrels a day) and also 27% of natural gas reserves, gas production in Iran will increase 5 fold by 2010. It is the last country that has considerable gas and oil fields (if we do not take into account Colombia) and is not controlled from the west. If Iran is defeated, the west will fully control the oil market, and the US will play a dominant role in the world economy. Natural gas prices will decrease and become stable. Decreasing of oil prices does not suit Russia since all its currency incomes are mainly dependent on the export of these resources, as well as social stability and the rule of Putin\u2019s clan. China is saying its first word on this market. It is a largest importer and fantastic indicators of its economic growth are fully dependent on stable oil supplies. That is why their position is understandable. No one wants such a boundless increasing of America\u2019s influence on the world that will result from defeating of Iran. In spite of this resistance, the US Secretary of State said in Europe at the end of April that Iran has the right to work on uranium enrichment, just like the whole civilized world has the right to control this undemocratic country as to how it makes a threat to the world. \u201cThe Security Council will have to return to this issue and its decision should not look like the old appeal\u201d, Mrs. Rice said.
\n The American President said that there is only way out \u2013 to be the first to deliver a strike. So, both countries make preparations for war \u2013 Iran buys new air defense facilities in Russia, because of which Russian authorities were criticized by the US, and America is looking for allies in this war.
\n Experts believe that the war will begin in December. This period is optimal from the viewpoint of meteorology, non-entering of Iran\u2019s tests into the final stage and exhausting of the existing diplomatic arsenal. According to a famous American journalist Seymour Hersh, one of the variants being considered by the White House envisages the delivery of a nuclear strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. \u201cIn accordance with one of the prepared plans, in winter the White House will use tactical nuclear weapons of B61-11 that is intended for destruction of underground bunkers\u201d, – writes Hersh in \u201cNew York\u201d magazine. First, the strike will be delivered from air, that is why Iran strengthens its air defense. Now the US intimidates Iran by declaring that the decision on starting of military operations will be taken in summer. Iranian leadership responds to this challenge and does not change its positions. Perhaps the war is unavoidable, but it will not be an ordinary military operation and many allies are needed for this purpose.
\n The first results of this confrontation record breaking oil prices. In experts\u2019 opinion, the current 75 USD per barrel is not the limit and soon the world will see a three-digit figure as well. This makes the situation a more dramatic one.
\n What is Georgia\u2019s role in this conflict, whether it will take part in operations against its historical enemy \u2013 Iran and what effect it will have on the country\u2019s security? What will be Russia\u2019s reaction in this situation and how it will play this card against Georgia? \u2013 these are the questions that are of interest to Georgian experts. There are no answers to these questions firstly because Georgia has already became involved in this unstarted war from the viewpoint of increasing of oil prices and experiencing unprecedented pressure in both economic and political issues on the part of Russia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FROM THE REDACTION Iran Territory: 1 648 km2 Population: 68 688 433<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[32],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Date of Beginning of a War in Iran - Geoeconomics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?p=1680\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Date of Beginning of a War in Iran - Geoeconomics\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"FROM THE REDACTION Iran Territory: 1 648 km2 Population: 68 688 433\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\">\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"4 minutes\">\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Geoeconomics\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\",\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?p=1680#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?p=1680\",\"name\":\"The Date of Beginning of a War in Iran - Geoeconomics\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2006-04-11T13:08:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-03-11T13:09:23+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/c8498c0ae03a66c87b59761fbd19b04c\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/?p=1680\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/c8498c0ae03a66c87b59761fbd19b04c\",\"name\":\"Admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/bf2d8703d729f003d8905b57fcab5078?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Admin\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1680"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1681,"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1680\/revisions\/1681"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geoeconomics.ge\/en\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}