IS AMERICA AFRAID OF RUSSIA`S COMPETITION IN GEORGIAN ENERGY SYSTEM? (RESUME)
MARI TSIKLAURI
The Russian company “Gasprom” has recently published offers to the Turkish pipeline company BOTAS that concerned the loading of the pipeline ?Blue Stream”.
The company is ready to unify prices with three valid contracts on the supply of gas to Turkey and to reduce prices and the volume of supply for the next five years. In fact, this is tantamount to capitulation before BOTAS, but Gasprom has no other way out: conflict with Turkey might become a favourable argument for the liberalization of lengthy gas contracts in Europe.
In the beginning of July Gasprom has spread press release offering reanimation plan of supply to BOTAS. Some time before Iuri Komarov, vice chairman of the company board, had spoken about this offer in the closed press-conference held in Moscow for Turkish mass media.
According to the 2002 year plan, in 2003 Gasprom planned no less than 14 billion sq. meter supply of gas toTurkey, but it is already evident that even if Turkey accepts offers of Gasprom, gas supply still will not be able to exceed 12 billion sq. meters and profits from Turkish export will be 180-200 million dollars less than expected.
Offer of Gasprom to BOTAS is call for preserving lengthy contracts in exchange for temporary concessions. Yet, BOTAS understands this, too. That is why offers of Gasprom have not yet been accepted.
As far as we know, Gasprom has serious interests in Georgia. In May its director, Alexei Miller has considered the project of strategic co-operation in gas sphere during the meeting in Tbilisi.
It is clear that appearance of Gasprom in Georgian market will put an end to the monopoly of Itera.
However, Itera has suddenly found an ally in its struggle for Georgian gas market in the face of Americans that are equally worried by the appearance of Gasprom in Georgia.
The American Administration is interested in the fate of Baku-Tbilisi-Jeikhan pipeline that would go past Russia. The pipeline is meant for Caspian gas transportation and would eventually lead to the significant decrease of Russian influence in Europe. The USA will do its best to hamper the realisation of suspicious projects from the economic point of view. The present attempt of USA to “clap” Caspian gas on Georgia (instead of cheap Russian gas) that no one knows when it would appear in Baku-Tbilisi-Jeikhan gasmain is no more than another attempt of Washington to defend the pipeline in which it has already made great investments, but in this case, Americans seemed to overdo it as they forgot that Georgians could sometimes raise their voice, too. That is why the Georgian government has given such a categorical answer to their demand ? care about the energetic resources of the country is more important for us than American interests. Georgian international Oil Company made no comment on it, but according to unofficial information, appearance of Gasprom in Georgia really throws the realisation of “Shakh-Denis” project into doubt. GIOC thinks that co-operation with Gasprom threatens US interests in southern Caspia. If Russia exports gas to East Turkey past Georgia, it will strengthen its influence in Turkey, which is also against the US interests.