Dr. Emzar Djgerenaia
We have informed our reader in the previous magazine numbers that downfalls and cold became a rare thing in Georgia.
We have also forecasted that winter would oppress spring and take away its months, and rains would last more than usual. We have also added economic forecast to this one: we predicted that there would be no warmth, and stagnation would continue. No one will find it difficult to predict that our real economic reforms would, unfortunately, retreat to the background in the height of pre-election bacchanalia (it is unfortunate because no one who is a son of this motherland can remain indifferent to its difficult situation). These forecasts have come true.
Terrorism has become a daily problem in the international arena and turned into a backbone line of policy. Strange as it is, but we managed to occupy a small place here and turn into strategic partners of superpowers. This caused them to think about the safety of Georgia. There is nothing special going on here, but overseas country started to think about us, and even agreed to train and provide us with military equipment. Bush who along with Putin tries to rid the world of nuclear bombs and confrontation between Russia and NATO into partnership in the Roman summit turn, does not forget about the safety of our small country during serious negotiations with out northern partner. During Bush’s visit to Moscow in the end of May, a new correlation of power and new game rules are formed in the world policy. Georgia becomes an important element in this system under the patronage of America. After the Communism the world faced a new danger of Muslim extremism or terrorism. Each collaborator has a great value in this war, both Russia and Georgia. Therefore, the policy of patronage will be balanced without any serious shocks and quick progress. The international political balance is reflected in the areal of our internal policy where Zhvania’s team lost President’s patronage and turned into an independent oppositionist. Local elections will be the last accord of this play in which this group will not be a successful one. They will try to use Jorbenadze and Mamaladze for the propagandistic mechanism that is suitable to them against the coalition of the so-called “New” with the purpose of accusing them of improper ballot procedures and appearing before the public as undeservedly insulted. The second serious force that causes the government a headache and represents one of the parties in international negotiations will receive a particular percentage of votes. The next political script will depend on this percentage. As it is ultra left party (their slogan is confiscation and struggle against capital), the government tries to strengthen local (that do not rely on the interests of foreign countries) ultra lefts and labour parties because they rely on local roots, and it is easier to find something in common with them. Therefore, in accordance with the script, they will receive a particular amount of votes, too. Ringleaders of this boom, i.e. the so-called “New” will not be left without any votes, too, but these votes will not be enough for making up a local government due to the fact that “Entrepreneurs” and Mamaladze’s wing will have the same number of votes. The next circle will be occupied by “Agordzineba” and “Sociallists”, and the fourth one by other fellow applicants. Therefore, local elections will confirm the fact that no party of Georgia has a sufficient number of casting votes. It will be, in its own way, initial testing before the forthcoming elections in 2003 that is necessary for the recruitment of new elective commission. These elections have no other aim. Therefore, nothing will be changed no matter what the results are. After the elections, appointment of mayors and chairmen of Sakrebulo will become a major event. This will be followed by a summer renovation so that correlation of political forces will be reflected here, too. Thus, July will pass. We will have a holiday in August, and in September we will start sequestration of 180 000 000 budget and discussion of the Y 2003 budget. In November (or, perhaps, earlier) there will be a crack in Zhvania’s team that is ceased by a volcano of ambitions, and in the beginning of the next year the government will try to use a completely new youth force for the participation in pre-election racing in order to alleviate present ambitions and appetites of the Civil Union. The aim of these elections is to show foreign superpowers the favourites of which are some Georgian parties, that they do not have real power so that they should not hurry to finance them. The next Parliament elections will show whom they should rely on.
But what economy and forecast have to do here? The matter is that concern about the real reforms in economic sector was postponed for some other time. They will be recalled only after the end of political battles as we have already predicted in our previous magazine numbers because now everything is for policy, everything goes into policy! Triennial political period is declared in Georgia.
The weather will, probably, change for the better. People who are busy with reforms in economy will go on holiday along with other rank and file people.