About the prognosis of region’s budget revenues (ABSTRACT)

Prof. Niko Chikhladze

Analysis and prognosis of taxation and development trends of tax revenues is the most important objective of financial and economic departments.

Results of each research are designed for solution-taking. The government takes into consideration results of analysis and prognoses during the development and approval of income budget. Choice of correct budget prognosis method has decisive importance as determination of region’s financial potential depends on this. Among numerous prognosis methods, extrapolation method has been applied in Imereti region. The method implies the study of object (budget revenues 1998-2003) and its present regularities in retrospect.
Retrospective study of Imereti region’s budget revenues makes it possible to use the method of prognosis extrapolation. For this purpose, inventory of budget’s statistic data was performed for 1998-2003 through the method of minimum squares and extrapolation of obtained regularities in the future prognosis of budget revenues (2004-2008).
The mentioned method is justified for comparatively short period though we should consider some expected factors in macroeconomic area that might influence prognosis indicators. Therefore, it is advisable to make annual correction of the indicators on the basis of the existing reality, which is not difficult.