Alchemists or how much is two by two
Emzar Jgarenaia
Alchemists or how much is two by two
After hissing sea waves, summer rains and idle vacation days it is difficult to discourse on hard and serious matters, but still it is necessary to take care of the economy, people, their bright future and eternal interests. That is why upon my arrival from the land of rains and fogs, here I mean our sea shore, I immediately fell upon the figures, the figures about the economy. I wondered what had been going on during my absence, since during this period I did not now anything except for the fact that near Ureki I filled up my car with gasoline at the price of 1.81 GEL per liter, and at the market bought meat for 8 GEL. I did not believe my eyes – the official statistics was speaking about miracles; they are real alchemists – those statisticians. In general, statistics is an unusual thing. One statistician would say that after formula one competition for the big Brazilian prize the 24 years old Spaniard – Alonso won the third place and came off second-best. The other one would say that Alonso became the youngest world champion in formula one. Which is them is wrong? None of them. They are both right. The same thing is with us. In spite of the fact that in view of a great number of subjective and objective reasons for which the prices for fuel and many necessary products have considerably gone up, according to the statistical data rising in price of the basket of goods almost has not taken place. The subsistence minimum is nearly the same, and inflation is heroically standing close to zero. Is there any inaccuracy in it? It depends on the instance. If in calculation of the basket of goods we exclude gasoline from table, and put apples or peaces in it instead, we shall get the result that everything is all right and the price of the basket has not gone up. If we do not resort to this alchemy and calculate the basket by fuel, sugar, bread, transport, then we shall get 20% rising in prices. Let us, for example, take the unemployment indicator. If out of two million of able-bodied population we consider as unemployed only those who applied to the labor exchange office, then the unemployment rate is normal, since the rest of them will be considered as self-employed. Thus a person finds a job for himself, but this is not registered anywhere.
The whole world looks upon the growth indicators with a sinking heart. The projection of the IMF for 2006 is disturbing – 3.4% for the whole world, the predicted growth in the whole of CIS, including Georgia – 5.5%, but we introduced 7.8% GDP growth as the basis of the 2006 budget parameters. Who is right: we or the IMF? Believe it or not – both. Because we, in calculation of the GDP, make a correction by agriculture and domestic produce, which is a huge figure, and we get necessary figure this way. You want a 10% growth – you will get it, if you want 5.5 – it will be as you say. For example, we have a growth in foreign trade. But if look at the deficit, it is enormous as well. That is why an ordinary man may ask: is it good or bad that the turnover has increased? We shall answer that it depends on the instance. The hell with us, but how does the Ministry of Economy make calculations and forecasts with these figures? That is why it dies not make them at all, it has enough of its own problems. After the reforms it was charged with property management and privatization issues, and now nothing connects it with the economy, except for the name.
The opponents ask: has it always and everywhere been so? Yes, it used to be and will be so. For example, if you ask a statistician : who is a greater artist – Modigliani or Picasso, he will answer that Picasso because he pained 100 times more paintings. But if ask an artist, his answer will be – Modigliani, since he is a genius though he has painted a little. Paolo Coelho reminded me an alchemist, his hero in a work with the same name says: “The desert taught me silence”. Life taught statisticians silence, that is why they are alchemists, they love only percents, percents and nothing more. At first glance, what can be more trustworthy than figures? The figures but not statistical ones.
Alchemy is an amazing thing, but still, how much is two by two?