The World Economy First Decade Tendencies and Forecasts Up to the Late Year

FROM THE REDACTION

On the first decade of 2007 and the early April the world economy faced hitting on prices on oil products up to USD 63-65 for barrel and oil pipelines constructing boom.

Ceyhan-Samsun oil pipeline construction providing by Turkish (Calik Holding) jointly with some other west companies has taken advantage, schedule to be completed in a year period, occupying the territory up from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean –the Shell. The capacity schedule is 30-50 million tones per year, but the name of providers is not declared for yet.
Ceyhan-Samsun alternate is Burgas-Alexandrepolius oil pipe-line engaging in Russia from Bulgaria to Greece ports. The price of includes at least 1.3 million dollars, the length –300 kilometers, the construction to be started 2008, Russia has its 51 % of the project and the Greece and Bulgaria –24.5-24.5 %. The oil pipe-line capacity is approximately 30-50 tones, aiming Russia’s and Caspian oil transferring. Russia schedules to create the project into the main line of the Central Europe via Macedonia and Serbia.
–The Europeans started construction of new alternative oil pipe-line of the Konstatsia-Italy port Tirre. Aiming Caspian oil transfer basically and alternative line creating for the Europe dependent form Russia. The east market assimilating as a Russia‘s responder for not the last one be tighten to the Europe as on the basic market.
The East oil pipe-line –the Russia (the East Siberia) –China (Dats City)- Japan (Russia Pacific Ocean Ashore) aims 80 million tones of oil transfer capacity per year. USD 11.5 million project entitled “the East Siberia –Pacific Ocean”, which’s scheduled length includes 4 100 kilometers long, has already built its 750 kilometers line already. The “Transneft” comp. planes 1250 kilometers construction during the year. Experts’ estimate it as too risky project, because of Siberian oil –well reserves deficiency, while it needs 30 years period for the investitions redemption, and have problems with separate sort of oil mix of different oil –wells and the quality controlling. But clear is that Russia will find new partners in the East like China, Korea and Japan as the Europe alternate countries.
–The specialists consider Kazakhstan –China magistral as the alternate of the Russia’s project. Which` s construction works are about to complete, aiming supply of the both regions, but according to combined transportation rule of agreement – pip-line way to China and by railway after. The oil issue novelty of the first decade faces the following importance:
–Uncomparable reducing to 30 per cents of daily procure by OPEC, what based to important prices raising in conjunction with US reserves shortening.
–Gold prices surge and the Treasury Fond announcement concerning 4 billion dollars gold reserves scheduled selling in up-coming future.
–Stock market February crisis and its raising on March.
–US dollar currency fall against Euro and the Central Banks` interests unchange, except the Japanees Bank.
–Housing construction crisis in US.
–The idea of the Treasury Fond– the world economy developmet optimal forecast by the World Bank. Despite, recent forecast faced 5,6 %, it appeared as slight fall facing 4.9% for now. The world general use increasing was predicted, what means prices again increasing on food and raw-materials, inflation level raising will be also among the damages.

What Will Exactly Happen on the World Market and in Leading Economy Countries During the First Decade and What to Expect on the Second One?
The world leading experts believe US dollar currency again falling, the cause is credit interest rate law to 5.0% up from 5.25 % scheduled by the reserve system. That will be the firs precedent of several recent years time, from Allan Greenspen epoch. “US economy raising date will be stronger below its predicted level during the first decade of 2007. Caused with oil prices jumping up and housing serious crisis in US” –the economist Jaims Nightl of “ING Financial Markets” was quoted. The same opinion goes concerning US dollar currency. “BNP Paribas” chief treasury analyst Hans Redcker additionally tells, that US employment market date is troubled one, what goes the same with the inflation expectation fear of Ben Bernanke. Therefore, USD –EUR currency will face approximately 1.3233-1.3621 on the second decade of the year. The third decade expects USD against EUR 1.400 fall, what will face its back to 1.3500-1.3144 point at the fourth decade. The recent decade date will face 119 fall against Japanese Yen, with 1.15 USD strengthen on the second decade and 1.108 points strengthening will keep continue up till the end of the year.
The second decade expects US treasury indexes fall and economy increase date reducing, but on the unimportant level. That reduces inflation expected in US, what will bring trouble to the world other countries, considering US as main market.
Dow Jones date tells about the range of gold prices on the second decade of the year –USD 677-680 for ounce, silver –13.695-14.567 for ounce, platinum USD 1280-1283 for ounce, each date faces 3-7 per cent increase on the first decade.
Precious metal July Futures selling price is 679.7 USD, 678 USD in May and closing with GCM07-679.7 SIK07 13.85 PLN07-1279.5, according to COMEX (New York Commodity Stock branch).
Gold Futures (USD/Troy oz)

Precious and colored metal market is characterized with prices raising tendency. We will have detail talk about the issue a little bit later, because we should know that housing construction getting more expensive in Georgia, the reason is metals prices, including armature and copper prices hitting the level.
I would like stopping you attention on one of the highest oil quality –Lata prices.
Iranian crisis maintained increasing level creation. In addition with reserves reducing in US and procure level low by OPEC. But the most basic factor of the colored metals sphere is Chinese and India economy growth, where uninterrupted using level is appeared, what effects on oil prices increasing in the case of any procuring. So, petroleum prices increased in Georgia up to 165-175 Tetri, the same tendency will be kept in up- coming months.
Oil Futures (USD/Barell)

Experts believe natural gas unimportant increasing. Georgia will be basically supplied by “Gasprom” and gas rates will be among Regulatory Commission discussing issues, the price will include approximately 52-58 Tetri for kb. meters.
NATURAL GAZ FUTURES (USD/MMBtu)

On the second decade wheat prices will be increased before harvest and harvest prognoses declaring in US. That will be followed with coffee, sugar and soy-bean prices increasing.
Coffee Futures (USD/Pounds)

SUGAR Futures (US Cent/Pounds)

Colored metal prices, especially aluminum, copper and steal prices increase. Copper market expects hitting its highest level 2010, caused with raised demand and 1.05 million tones deficit. 48% copper will be used in construction, 17% –electronics and just 9% in car –building. Copper world reserves includes 654 million tones, which is basically located in the South America and Africa continents. According to the scientists` calculations, the reserve will remain enough for 35-37 years period of time. The metal habitualness is, that its procured with other sort precious metals. Gold and ect. yearly procure of 2006 includes 17.2 million tones and 7 % raising is expected for this year. The prices will be increased with 12.2 per cent, 2007. The prices increase is caused with the South –East Asia countries` and basically China entrepreneur growing.
Aluminum market is nearly the same way characterized:
ALUMINIUM FUTURES (USD/LB)

Macro Economics –Euro Zone
Euro zone: According to Eurostat preliminary dates, negative saldo of foreign trade consisted 7.8 billion EUR, in euro zone, 2007. According to the first stage calculations, the region trade balance profanity included 2.5 billion EUR in December of the recent year, the export level reached up 113.1 billion EUR, in January, but import –120.9 billion EUR. There was about the same difference during next two month period, and EUR sharply strengthening issue was repeatedly experts` s discussing issue. But economy growth 22% index was fine one for euro zone countries. The index will keep the same number in the second decade, despite of up- coming presidential elections in France and predicted one of the hottest summer, according to the expert calculations.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
On the fourth decade of 2006 GDP index increased 0.9% points in euro zone, according to decade calculating, but yearly calculation faces 3.3%. On the third decade of 2006, GDP includes 0.5 % against the second decade calculation, and 2.7 in 2005 against the same period calculation.

Industry Producing
On January of 2007 the orders number in the sphere of industry reduced with 0.2 % , by the season factors determining, but showed 3.7 % jump according to yearly calculation.

Consumer Inflation
On February of 2007, the inflation level of euro zone tome down to 1.8%, according to yearly calculations, the index faced 2.3 % in the same period of 2006.

Producer Prices Index
On January of 2006 producer price index show 0.1 % jump, relatively with December, 2006, but 2.9 % jump comparing with January, 2006.

Foreign Trade
As it has been already said, in January 2007, foreign trade negative saldo of euro zone included 7.8 billion EUR, export level reach 113.1 billion EUR in January, and import level reached –120.9 billion EUR high.

Retrial Trade
On January 2007 retrial trade volume reduced with 1.0% relatively with December, 2006.

Interest Rates
The European Central Bank kept unchanged interest rates –on 3.5 % level. The resolution was made on February 8 Bank Managing council. Unchanged interest rate was kept while January 11, 2007 session.

U.S. Macro Economics
During March 20-21 held sitting the U.S. Federal Reserve System made no changes concerning interest rates, index of which faces 5.25 %.
On February 2007 US housing secondary market gained 3,9% against the January of the same year, and show 6.69 million unites. The date came down with 3.6 % on February, 2006, according to yearly calculations and made 6.94 million during the same period, 2006.
According to US Trade Office dates, February 2007 housing volume faced 9% increase relatively with the recent month and made 1.525 against 1.399 million. The experts supposed 1.45 million unites of housing volume in February. Moreover, given out orders on housing construction reduced to 1.532 million unites up from 2.5 % compared with January.
According to February, 2007 outcomes, US leading economy indicator indexes dates reduced with 0.5 % what goes the same way with analysts` suppose. The index grow with 0.1%, January, 2007, 03% grow in December, 2006, 0.1$ grow in November, 0.2 % grow in September, 0.4 % grow in October.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
According to US Trade Office information, economy growth temp level will come up to 2.2 % at fourth decade, by yearly calculations, the index faced 2.0% at the third decade. DGP total increase included 3.3% during 2006, compared with 3.2% increase at 2005.

Industry Produce
February, 2007 industry produce volume faces 1.0 % increase, and 3. 4% increase, by the yearly calculations.

Consumer Inflation
As US Labor Office reports, consumer prices index faced 0.2 % increase on February 2007, and 2.7 % increase by the yearly calculations.

Foreign Trade
According to US Trade Office information, the negative saldo of trade balance reduced with 3.9 % in January of 2007 and consisted 59.1 billion dollars. Import amount includes 158.8 billion dollars, and export –126. 6 billion dollars. The negative saldo of the trade balance included 61.5 billion dollars, December, 2006.

Entrepreneurs’ Prices Index
Entrepreneurs’ process index grow with 1.3%, in February, 2007. Production prices increase included 0.4 % except food and energy production. The dates had been reported by US Labor Ministry Office.

Consumer Deposit
US faces consumer deposits 6.4 billion dollar increase on January, 2007

Retrial Trade
According to US Trade Office information, retrial trade volume faced 0.1% jump in February 2007, compared with the January of the same year, and included 370.5 billion dollars totally. February 2007 retrial trade volume faced 3.2 % increase, by the yearly calculations.

Interest Rates
US Central Bank left interest rates unchanged—on 5.25 % level.