What for Russia leads warfare and in what will Georgia be exchanged?

EMZAR JGERENAIA

Nabucco – it is annually 31 billion cubic meter natural gas transporter pipeline, which would be started in Baku or in Kazakhstan and pass Turkey, Hungary and end in a town of Baumgarten in Austria.

Supposedly the project will have several branches. First, we should mention that Nabucco is the continuation of Baku- Tbilisi-Erzerum Gas Pipeline. According to the project of Nabucco it isn’t supposed to build a new pipeline through Georgia. Directly for this reason, on the 26th of June 2006, when the signing of this project took place, it had been signed by the Ministers of Energy of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria and not Georgia. The main participants are: Botas AS-Turkey, Bulgar gas Holding EAD, MOL Pic Hungary, OMV OGB Austria , RWE GErmani and Transgaz SA Romania. The project is signed by the European Commission and backed by the USA. The total length of the pipeline is 3,3 thousand kilometers and maximum capacity 31 billion cubic meters in a year. Presumable date of entering into exploatation is 2013. The cost of the project is nearly 8 billion EURO. The most actual question: from where the pipeline is supplied? It may be supplied with Azerbaijanian, Kazakhian, Turkmenian, Egyptian, Iranian and even Iraqian gas. As the experts declare, among gas exporters this project till today has been having the one and only relaible and devoted partner in the form of Azerbaijan. Because that Turkmenia doesn’t at all talk about this project and is fully oriented to Russia.
Kazakhstan, which participated in this project like an observer, detains itself and signs the agreement on gas transportation with Russia. Because of Russia’s influence it doesn’t join the project. The authors of the project offer Russia to connect with the project of “Blue Stream“, which from the port of Russia supplies natural gas to Ankara, to the above mentioned project in Ankara or in other words by loading Nabucco. But still the West haven’t managed to overcome Russia’s resistance and the main reason of Russia’s agression towards Georgia was to wreck this very project. It is possible that the “Blue Stream“ became the branch of Nabucco, on wich of course Russia’s reaction is negative, as it needs absolute control. The second problem is Iran. Iran’s joining to this project is also planned, but it still has not joined it. Along with this, if we take into consideration Iran’s atomic ambition and the tensed relations with the West, the acutness of the problem becomes completely clear. To this is also added the recent agreement of Russia-Iran on gas transportation and price coordination. The West is loseing here too. As for Egyptian and Iraqian gas, it is a matter of long perspective, because until do not exist the linking tubes between these countries. To this was also added one more problem. Through Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey to Erzrum want to construct an additional branch. This direction is being actively processing. To this serves the recent closeness of Turkey-Armenia and Armenia-Azerbaijan. This, to their point of view will manage to settle the problem of Nagorno-Karabagh and reconcile a century ago quarreled Tirkish and Armenian people. This position was prooved by the first Memorandum of Armenia-Azerbaijan during the last 15 years, which had been signed on November 2 in Novogarivo, with the participation of Russia’s formal President Medvedev. Though, some watch skeptically to the rapid continuation of this process. The supporters of this great reconcilation are everybody: Azerbaijan, Turkey, the USA and Russia. Every of them has its own variant, though the fact that everybody is the supporter means that this issue has matured.
After Georgia’s annexation by Russia, the so called Karabagh Issue Minsk Group’s visit in Baku and Erevan also became frequent in Moscow. Mr. Mathew Braiza now is busy only with this problem. He damped down towards Georgia, may be he regarded the issues of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as hopeless and started the lobbing of new ways through Armenia and probably moves forward. There is one important moment, which we consider to be a great problem- Russian soldiers are disposed in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabagh too. How much it is possible that the West let the Pipeline that is directed against Russia and is the guarantee of Europe’s energy independence pass through the territory of Russian military bases; it means that the pipeline would be controlled by Russia. But Russia is not going to withdraw its troops from Armenia and Karabagh and correspondingly this is the great problem of Nabucco’s Armenian vector.
One thing is very clear- the gas of Baku is not enough for this project and without surmount of Russia’s resistance the project of Nabucco is already failed. In spite of the fact that Nabucco is called the Trans Caspian Pipeline and Turkmenistan have been promising Europe that in 2009 it will pass 10 billion cubic meters of gas through this pipeline, still no one dares to escape from Russian influence and everyone stares at Georgia, how effective the West’s assistance would be and how they would manage to free Georgian territories- Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Russian occupants. The question of West’s energy independence is resolving in Georgia in Tskhinvali and Sokhumi. Sometimes the West wants to soften the situation and combine the friendship with Russia to energy independence, the support of small independent countries, which badly resambles the dialogue with wolf on the rights of sheep life.
And the last problem- the Minister of Energy and Industry of Azerbaijan, Natik Aliev declared that Nabucco is the transit pipeline for Azerbaijan and will serve Turkmen and Kazakh natural gas. Herewith, he stressed that the problem of the Caspian Sea status determination is very important, which is a constant matter of dispute between the supporters and opposers of this project. Amon them is Iran, without which gas according to experts, the project of Nabucco would not load. According to Natik Aliev the state oil company of Azerbaijan is processing the several projects, they are: Shah Deniz- with the reserve of 1 thrillion 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas, the assimilation of which goes with the first phase. After the end of the second phase it will manage to reach the procurement of 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas in a year; Gunesh, where according to the Minister is the reserve of 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas and the mines of Araz and Alov „NhahWevani’, also the mine Sharg, where extraction is not started yet.
The rival of Nabucco is the “South Stream“- a new pipeline, which starts in port of Beregovya the Black Sea coast region of Russia and goes to Bulgaria. It’s length is 900 km and will pass in the Black Sea below the depth of 2000 meters. After this it passes through Greece, Hungary, Austria and goes to Italy. Though its capacity is limmited with the pecularities following from the Marine routes. In spite of this, many countries of Europe, among them Greece, Hungary and Bulgaria consider this project as a non-deficient and in case of implementation of its second branch, which goes through Romania and Czech Republic, they will grant it a status of European Pipeline.
At any rate, on the opposition of these pipelines depends not only the fate and peace of Georgia in Caucasus, but also Europe’s energy independence and the realization of Russia’s Imperial aims. It is important that directly on this issue is connected the question of the USA’s being as a World Leader. French Foreign Minister Coushner, on the eve of the USA Presidential elections declared and may be expressed the viwpoint not of whole Europe but at lease Sarkozi’s position that Barac Obama should be elected as the president of the USA because he has to take into consideration that he is not alone in the world and the time of personal decision making is over, he should respect Europe. Coushner cited as an example of France’s role in the peace conclusion of Russia-Georgia war and underlined that the USA did not intervene there. But even till today Russia’s occupation of Georgia is going on in a very sever forms. No one responses strictly on this fact. It is the reality of the 21st century the World Diplomacy farce.
Natural gas is used by 60 million familis in all over the world. Natural gas uses the 78% of the existing restaurants, 51% of the existing hospitals and 58% of the retail shop net. The second part of natural gas consumption is its use for the industrial aims: clothes and generally weaving industry, manufacturing of chemical fertilizers, carpets, sporting goods and equipment production, plastics and auto spare parts, pharmaceutical, military production and what is the most important electricity production. Liquid gas is also used in chemical industry, in agriculture and nearly so many families use it as the users of non liquid natural gas. Also it is very important that the prices on natural gas rised permanently during the lasr years. From 1990 the price rised nearly 2.5 times and also grew the consumption. Herewith, the price of natural gas composes nearly 55% of its general price, 42% is its transportation and operator company share. It is worth mentioning that during the last 8 years the income share of transporting and operating companies have been decreasing steadfastly, because more and more gas is being transported through pipelines and this is a progressive process. For this reason decisive is not only who owns the gas, but also who transports it. Directly in this is a great sum of money.
The world politics is created around pipelines and on them. Among them is created Georgia’s Eurointegration and Independence. Nabucco is a way of survival for Georgia, but for others it is a commercial project. It’s just a political shield and cause for Georgia’s annexation for one side and for other side a cause for political oppression. Georgia’s role is too tiny here, either you struggle with Russia or are inslaved, Russia has no other way. It’s a myth that who struggles with Russia would be struggled itself. Europe’s hypocricy always helped Russia and it by all means will struggle to destroy Nabucco, to reinstand the Empire. Russia has already began to deal with the Europe. According to “Gazprom“ in 2009 Europe will have to pay 350-400 USD for thousand cubic meter of gas instead of 460-520 USD. And this just only because that the price on oil reduced. Is it so? Just only in 2008 Russia will receive 75-77 billion USD for selling its gas to Europe. And along with the transportation the whole income will compose 100 billion USD. It is completely possible that Georgia might be exchanged to gas, if Russia wins now too, as it used to be so historically, it would be a great merit of Europe.
The source: The Journal of Azerbaijan’s Trade-Industrail Chamber, Contact, web page: www.api.org