Which migration wave does Georgia follow?

Eka Lekashvili TSU Associate Professor Tamta Mikaberidze TSU Doctorant

It is the beginning of XXI century migration is a significant global issue since more and more people are migrating between the countries.

For the moment, 192 million people, or 3% of the world population, live outside their homeland. Migration is influenced by such global trends as demographic changes, economic disparity between the developed and the developing countries, trade liberalization, communications development, etc.
Georgia is situated at the crossroads between Europe and Asia. Accordingly, it is considered together with European and Central Asian countries.
Along with global migration trends, the countries of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region are characterized by specific signs conditioned by transition to a new economic system, liberalization of the political and the economic spheres, changing of the states’ strategies and borders.
Unlike the planned economy conditions marked by a very strict control of migration flows, a single wage system and a small degree of the economy’s openness, the modern open economy is characterized by less control of migration, a big difference in wage rates and incomes, fluctuations of market prices and a high level of integration with the world market. The mentioned factors have contributed to intensification of migration flows in the ECA countries and, among them, in Georgia as well.
Immigration and emigration flows are strong in the ECA region. All in all, there are 35 million foreign residents here, of which in Russia – 13 mln, in Ukraine – 7 mln, in Kazakhstan – 3 mln, in Poland – 3 mln, in Turkey – 1.5 mln.1
On the one hand, geographical directions of migration in the ECA region are developing from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Central Asian countries, towards Western Europe and, on the other hand – from the Central Asian countries to the CIS countries that are rich in resources, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as Turkey. Migration flows from Georgia go in both directions: towards Western and Eastern European countries and also towards Russia and Turkey.
Population census data, border crossing statistics and results of surveys conducted by the international organizations, including the International Organization for Migration, are systematically used with the purpose of data specification. Structuring of the data is implemented according to age, gender, profession, emigration country, migration purpose and other indicators.
According to the indicators of natural population increase and net migration, four groups of countries can be singled out in the ECA region: the first group, which includes Turkmenistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, is characterized by positive natural population increase and positive net migration. The second group includes the countries of Central Asia and Caucasus, as well as the countries formed as a result of breakup of former Yugoslavia, which are characterized by positive natural population increase and negative net migration. The third group includes the countries having negative natural population increase and positive net migration. The Russian Federation, Slovakia, Hungary, Belarus are in this group. Immigrants to the Russian Federation are mainly people from the republics of the Former Soviet Union. In the fourth group countries – Bulgaria, Moldova, Poland, Lithuania Latvia, Ukraine – natural population increase and net migration indicators are negative. A decline in the number of population, as well as its ageing, contribute to aggravation of the situation in these countries.

Along with the legal migration flows in the ECA region that are registered on the borders of both emigration and immigration countries, there are also large-scale illegal migration flows. Opening of borders and liberalization of population movement in the ECA region conditioned the emergence of transit, illegal and unofficial migration flows. A great number of migrants set hopes on getting to the United States, Japan and Western Europe, but most of them decided to settle in the ECA countries. Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Georgia and Azerbaijan are an example of countries for transit migrants.
The number of unofficial migrants in the European Union amounts to 3 million people. According to the survey conducted by the International Organization for Migration, 99% of the labor force is illegally migrating within the Euroasian Economic Community countries (Belarus, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan), due to which they cannot benefit from safety measures2
Studying of a concrete country’s migration trends is necessary for appropriate migration management. For example, Russia receives migrants from all republics of the Former Soviet Union, while the destination of Russian emigrants is Germany, Israel and the United States. Russia is most attractive for migrants from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It is important that Kazakhstan itself becomes the primary destination for other Asian countries.
From Poland population mainly migrates to Germany, the United States and Canada, which resulted in growing of the Polish diaspora in these countries. Hungary is a net recipient of migrants. Many people from Romania have gone to Germany. The only country from which Romania is gaining migrants is its close ethnic neighbor, Moldova. Czechia and Slovakia are migrant recipient countries. Russia has been the dominant migration destination for Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The largest flow of emigrants left Georgia in 1990-1992. The 2002 population census in Georgia revealed a net migration loss of 1.1 million persons or 20 percent of the population. A considerable number of migrants from Armenia are leaving for the United States, while Turkey and Israel are top Azerbaijani destinations.
Economic factors such as differences in per capita income drive migration patterns among the post-Soviet states in the short term. Demographic changes are not less important as well.
The northern states of the Former Soviet Union are characterized by low fertility and population ageing. By contrast, the population in the southern FSU states is younger and natural population increase is observed in them. Changes in the number and age of the population do not imply an unconditional migration between the countries but do present a precondition to that effect. Geographic proximity and common historical legacy of the FSU states gives an incentive to the southern states’ youth to look for jobs in the north.
In Georgia, surveying of migration flows structure, its geographic directions, trends and problems is systematically implemented by Georgian and foreign scientists, as well as local and international organizations working on migration issues.
At present, the impact of the world economic crisis on migration flows is most relevant. How will it tell on Georgia? Will it change the existing migration trends or not?
The data on net migration in Georgia in 2002-2007 is given in Diagram 1 (Diagram 1 was complied based on the data of the Statistics Department: the Ministry of Economic Development of Georgia, the Statistics Department, Quarterly Bulletin, 2008IV, Tb., 2009, p. 75).
It can be seen that in 2002 the net migration was negative, while in 2004-2005 – positive. A decrease in the emigrant flows during the mentioned period should be ascribed to the expectations related to the so-called “Revolution of Roses”, particularly from the viewpoint of job creation and improvement of general conditions. From 2006 the mentioned indicator is again negative and characterized by the increasing trend. For the time being, we have not obtained the official migration statistics data on the impact caused by the August 2008 hostilities and the world financial crisis. It is recognized that a war generally contributes to triggering of emigration flows. The impact of the financial crisis on migration flows is mutually exclusive. In the last case, great importance is attached to the employment situation. For the purpose of studying the issue, let us compare the 2002-2007 indicators of Georgia’s population, active population and employed population (see Diagram 2).
It turned out that, during the period under review, a stable employment level (?!) was retained on Georgia’s labor market, i.e. in Georgia there were no preconditions for intensification of the emigration flows with the purpose of finding employment abroad. This time it is important to find the reasons for immigration or re-emigration flows, which can be conditioned by the world financial crisis.
The impact of the current world economic crisis may result in restriction of the global economic development and deep recession. It is very difficult to determine and forecast the effect of the crisis’s results on the employment sphere. The impact of the crisis will essentially vary depending on a particular country or region.
In conditions of the economic downturn it can be expected that migrant workers will be the first to lose their jobs and there is a possibility that a part of them will come to a decision in favor of returning to their homeland. The migration policy aimed at returning of the labor force to the homeland will not be an effective decision since it may have negative results on the development: money transfers to the developing countries, which made up 283 billion USD in 2008, will be actually reduced, and, besides, a high unemployment rate in the developing countries should be also taken into account. 4
Concrete results of the financial crisis’s impact on migration are still unknown, though there is a wide range of negative results which should be considered by policy makers:
• The financial crisis will have the most negative impact on the jobs of migrants employed in construction, financial service, retail sphere and tourism;
• The financial crisis will prompt employers to cut down expenses related to the social package, improvement of wages and working conditions, which will eventually have an effect on migrants’ life quality and health;
• The risk of discrimination and xenophobia towards migrants is increasing;
• Migrants, who returned to their homeland under the influence of the financial crisis, mainly remain without employment;
• Reduction in the volume of sendings and transfers made by migrants impedes the development. The results of that will have an effect on trade, banking system, investments, business sphere and economic development in general;
• In conditions of the financial crisis the rights of illegal migrants are more unprotected. Accordingly, trafficking facts become more frequent.
According to the forecast, a population decline is expected in the ECA countries during the period till 2050. A decline in the working-age population in the ECA countries and a corresponding increase in those over age 65 in EU will create a demand for workers from abroad. Rapidly developing countries of the ECA region may become attractive for workers from other countries of the region from the viewpoint of employment.
Thus, migration makes the economy more dynamic and effective. It can alleviate the economic crisis in some respects and play an important role in stopping of the economic downturn. That, in its turn, requires conducting of a flexible, coordinated and improved migration policy aimed at overcoming of the abovementioned negative results.