Political heat in parliament

Sophico Sichinava

The political situation in Georgia is still critical. Confrontation between the opposition and Zurab Zhvania’s group reached its climax.

The situation became still more accelerated when the majority passed laws on election and local self-government without the opposition’s consent. This step may be a mistake for it will serve to merge the opposition still more. The thing that served to consolidate the opposition was Zurab Zhvania’s possible appointment to the post of a prime-minister.
The Opposition’s reaction to Zurab Zhvania’s nomination for the post of a prime-minister could well be anticipated. “The danger of Zhvania” induced politicians to make incredible steps. F.e. after a many years’ separation NDP and “the National” managed to find something in common. All this testifies to the fact that there are no such notions as never and forever in politics. In these days the parliament and non-parliament opposition met in the industrial office and formed a coordinating board. The Board will be guided by the consensus principle. The opposition is evidently frightened. The majority, too, should not calmly observe their merger.
The third group which is represented by the Citizen’s Union, also takes part in this confrontation with the status of a neutral observer. In case of need, they vote for the bills suitable for Zhvania, but personally they agree to the motions set forth by the opposition. The function of the executive branch which is represented by governors and ministers is to balance this situation. This is the caste which opposes Zhvania and which is aware of the changes that his nomination may entail. They do not fully believe the opposition, too, and maintain neutrality. Their principle is to prevent both Zhvania and the opposition from gaining a victory. The developments that are now taking place are viewed in the political establishments as crucial and are mainly focused on the following issues: this is the matter of local elections or elections on the whole, the way of electing mayor and governor who are accused of election fraud. Another issue is making up the Central Electoral Committee. As mentioned above, the parliament passes these laws in the extraordinary session. During the life TV broadcasting of the session one could see how one deputy passed decisions for the others. The laws for which the opposition voiced hopes for were passed without their participation. The Opposition had the only thing to do ? to demand that the President should put a veto on these laws, which he refused, and another thing to do was to launch a complaint in the Constitutional Court. Yet, the Court remains silent for the time being. In parallel with these events, the economic group formed by Zhvania has to face serious problems. Superficially, they have improved the quality of plan execution. In fact, the whole tax revenue did not even reach the level of the year 1999 . The currency reserves claimed 205 million sequestration. The reason for it is the lack of outside financing in the form of grants and credits. It is more or less related to the 80 million worth privatization and to the 60 millions that were not transferred from Adjara. But the main and real thing is the philosophy of budgeting.
there were less tax revenues and more outside sources. Revenues from the privatization are not assigned for covering costs, and the National Bank credit which is allocated to cover 170 million worth budget deficit, was to be transferred to the reserves. Budget expenditure shall be determined by tax revenue. If some object were sold, 300 million debt would be paid off. If foreign funds are appropriated , they will be assigned for budget performance. In case of non-existence of these two sources, the National Bank will serve as a reserve. Grants and foreign aid, non-existing privatization and sums from the unsold projects are included in the part of budget revenue. The National Bank credit is also included in the part of budget financing. These three points make for the archaic planning of the budget. On account of this fact, tax revenue was very low. Yet, this low index was not executed, either, and the economic group did not manage to make any progress in the taxation of cigarettes and fuel.
True, great revenues come from fuel taxation. But it is not due to the fact that taxation becomes more and more legalized, it is due to the fact that the price for it is too high. The Customs and Tax Administration applied the principal plan to the Custom House. The Tax plan is always implemented and deserves applause, but the Customs one is never done and deserves nothing but censure. This show, plus the reform in Treasury, which is aimed at nothing else but at the monitoring of expenditures in the Finance Ministry, caused the Currency Fund and the International Financing Organizations to claim sequestration. The budget gap amounts to 80 million. Added to this, was another change at the end of the year. In other words, the last year show will be repeated ? there was one sequestration in summer, there was another by the end of the year. This year the same group does not manage to overcome the 450 million tax barrier and to implement the budget despite the low indices. They did not manage to improve economy and to stop crisis. Balzerovich’s group made similar conclusions that criticized changes in the Tax Code. They advised that the Government should pursue a real economic policy. Balzerovich himself could say nothing favorable about the Georgian economy.
Under these circumstances, the Parliament is not right in constantly criticizing the Government, moreover, when the Parliament forces are tied with the economic group that deals with economic policy. Priority is not given to professionalism, but to populism and show. The systematic and real reform is not implemented. All this led Zhvania’s group to it that their popularity fell. Yet, this process is still going on. In fact, they do not have any materials left for populism. Zhvania is keen on changing this situation. The only way-out for him is to hold the post of a prime-minister.
It is impossible to put the blame of economic crisis on someone else. It will take at least eight months to form the Cabinet. After this a new period will come, the period of the new Government; the implementation of reforms will approximately take 18 months. By this time, elections will be held and Zhvania will sacrifice 5-6 ministers in order to be able to say something to the people.
If Zhvania becomes a prime-minister he will improve economic situation: there are no two opinions about it. There are serious reserves in economy, so the situation may change. As far as the group is concerned, whether he will have one or not, I would like to say that he will not because they squeezed themselves out. I think it is not possible to speak about the economic group today. This is the merger of Ministries of economy, their authorities try to survive as politicians in this struggle. In autumn, Zhvania will have to immediately offer the President the alternative candidature for the post of Parliament Chairman. No matter how much Shevarnadze might like Zhvania, he will not agree to appoint a member of Zhvania’s group. He has two alternatives-Niko Lekishvili or former Minister of State-Vaja Lortkipanidze. Lekishvili belongs to the majority, moreover, he has his own group. He is quite popular in Adjara as well as in the oppositional camps of politicians in Tbilisi. Lekishvili is a real candidature, even the President will not object to his candidature. Yet, he does not suit Zhvania because the Majority leader is a prominent figure, he is in quite good relations with businessmen and has great financial assets. In view of this fact, there is the danger that Lekishvili will become an absolutely uncontrollable figure.
As for Vaja Lortkpanidze, he is known for his refined political integration, but he still has to encounter difficulties both with oppositional forces and authoritative persons. Proceeding from this, we may suppose that Zhvania places his hopes on this person. In spite of the fact that Zhvania did everything to make Lortkipanidze leave the state minister’s party, the latter is still loyal to Zhvania. Lortkipanidze might have taken this step himself because he did not possess real economic basis. Involvement in economy is impossible without this basis. Proceeding from this, the post of state minister is, in fact, a non-existing one.
Zhvania is impatiently expecting Baghdad elections. Vaja Lortkipanidze will certainly win elections and Zhvania will nominate him for the post of Parliament Chairman because he believes there will be less problems with him. The issue of prime-minister was postponed till autumn, due to the fact that Zhvania is awaiting Baghdad elections. By the way, Baghdad is the place where a great number of politicians come from. Our representative in the United Nations Petre Chkheidze Bagdaduli and other deputies are the people who create a serious atmosphere in politics. We do not imply the former penitentiary chairman, who started and ended his career in Baghdad . Today, the Baghdadis have to make a serious choice. They must understand that the creation of a political map is dependent on them. A quite new era in Georgian politics may take its rise from Baghdad. All this is connected with Vaja Lortkipanidze who, as a political figure, will go back to the legislative body, but not to the executive one.
It is difficult to say how controllable will be the figure of Vaja Lortkipanidze in the role of Parliament chairman. When we talk about it, we should take into consideration the fact whether Vaja Lortkipanidze will be able to forget the past offence and cooperate with the opposition. Yet, as said above, the word never and forever should not be mentioned in politics. The post of Parliament Chairman is so important nowadays that the appointment of an unknown person would be a great mistake and would undoubtedly distort the balance.
Thus, after a hot summer, it is doubtful that autumn would slightly cool the politicians. Political debates about constitutional changes, claims to make amendments in laws on election and local self-government, elections and oppositional demarches are now expectable.