The way out of crisis found

Sophico Sichinava

The November events testified to the fact that the governmental crisis was still going on. The politicians confirmed again that they try hard to neutralize the negative blast and that they do not have the ability for taking important decisions.

After the retirement of Zurab Zhvania the Parliament has been paralyzed for about a week and failed to elect a chairman.
The politicians do not miss the chance of taking advantage of the situation when something is dependent on them and it was one of the disgusting periods in the history of Parliament. The most disgusting period in the history of Georgia was that of submitting new candidature for consideration and approval. It was the period when the majority and opposition have completely lost their authority.
The president again confirmed that in reality he exercised control over the situation in Georgia.
Our respondents say that Shevarnadze does not look for a successor. If this is true, it turns out that all political forces as well as Zhvania-Saakashvili group are in the same situation and that now much depends on them.
The constitutional changes are now being reviewed with a view to settling the crisis. I doubt that everyone who speaks about it is well aware of the consequences . However, it becomes obvious that governing the country by means of cosmetic changes only is already impossible.
Shalva Natelashvili, the leader of the labourist party, chairman of ” Citizens’ Union” Merab Tkeshelashvili, chairman of “New Georgia” Irakli Gogava and chairman of “United Georgia’ George Targamadze speak to this effect.
Shalva Natelashvili:
– What is the political balance in Georgia?
– There is an explosive political balance in Georgia which is due to the deep state. The retirement of Zhvania’s group from the Government that resulted from these very processes failed to settle the situation because the pyramid, the system itself did not undergo any change and required for a political victim. People like Zhvania and Saakashvili are likely to come again.
– Do you think that the president chose Zhvania in spite of all this?
– No, I do not think so. He will choose Zhvania only if he is made to do so by their common overseas patron. In case of need, he can set them to quarreling and make peace. The President will choose neither them nor anyone else because Shevarnadze can not imagine someone else to achieve a president chair. Perhaps, he thinks that like in Korea he will receive a similar status of permanent president here, too. He will at best try to appoint a person who is adherent to his oligarch interests.
– – Which political force do you think the President take sides with?
– I think the president relies on one thing only – on the wisdom and placidity of Georgian people who have already gone through the danger of overturn in the government. Thus, it is an important lever for them which makes it possible to continue cosmetic changes and neutralize the situation. Shevarnadze did his best to avoid the establishment of stable government system and constitutional mechanisms.
– Proceeding from this, Shevarnadze’s rule makes it possible to preserve the stable situation with a view of determining the future political order.
– I refrain from making any comments on other parties. One thing is important for the laborist party – the peaceful retirement of Zhvania-Shevarnadze group that will result in constitutional changes. We made this claim in Frankfurt Court two years ago and it is now being processed. The Parliament that came to the government by means of false elections would not be able to preserve the existing situation in the Parliament and would turn into an exploder . There are not such political forces in the Parliament that have the support of people.
– People’s prudence is an abstract notion. Could you express more specifically your opinion about what political force the President relies on?
– First of all, on the bitter experience of people and then on his international authority. Many people may dislike Shevarnadze but still you can not deny that he is a great politician. Europe and America have not experienced the bitter experience of his activities. On the contrary, they gained an economic profit and, proceeding from this, positive consequences. Let us be more objective. Gamsakhurdia was not overthrown either by Ioseliani or Kitovani. He was defeated by international isolation. These conditions arose as soon as Moscow, Paris, Washington, Bonn turned their backs on him The changes in the Georgian Government are caused by international relations. The third factor are law-enforcement agencies. Shevarnadze is still an internal affairs minister by his nature and can govern the structures in accordance with the government technology and post preservation policy. He relies on oligarch layers that he himself formed by means of credits and grants. Zhvania is this kind of social phenomenon who rebelled just because others managed to grab more than he.
– It is very doubtful that someone should take sides with the future Parliament election in these conditions when the Parliament is full of political ballast that has no hopes for reaching the supreme legislative body. Second, what is your opinion of election law and its democratic execution.
– I can make a very hazardous conclusion from your question – if no term is set for the next elections there will be no stop of the uncontrollable processes. The Parliament members can only lose their mandates via self-liquidation in case they fail to do so, they can even lose their heads. The historical processes automatically generate a leader, actors and mass.
– In spite of numerous threatens the Parliament appointed all ministers except Chkhobadze. The deputies did not stint their praises of candidatures for ministers. We suspect that the Parliament deals in dirty transactions. Do you think the Parliament will have sense enough to do all that you said?
– True, it is a hard work, but you should have a look at the list of deputies, you will learn about the workplaces of their nearest surroundings and relatives. They work in the establishments accountable to ministries where big money is made. It is a simple corruption pyramid where the participants of this criminal organization will let each other down in strategic issues.
– What makes the government change the elective law that is advantageous for them?
– A parliament member or a deputy can hardly imagine that he will not be permitted to the Parliament without a laissez-passer. All of them believe that they will be admitted to the Parliament again. A member of the majority group thinks that after he has spent money in order to become a deputy he will be able to do so again. Zhvania-Saakashvili group think that they are now at the height of their fame and they will meet no drawbacks during the elections.
– We will have to face the fact that no changes in the Parliament were made.
– In democratic conditions the situation will change abruptly in spite of any election fraud.
– Who will conduct these democratic elections?
– Democratic electoral agency that rules out any political interests.
– Where will the President be in this situation?
– The President is less interested in the future political forces in the Parliament. Nor is he interested in who is in this Parliament. The term of presidency expires. Of course, he is interested in the arrival of sensible forces, but Shevarnadze will not start his engine before the start of elections.
– Do you think that Mikhail Saakashvili’s modernized and funded national movement will become your major rival?
– I agree that they are our rivals from the financial point of view, but from the ideological point of view they are our antipodes. They have nothing to do with the electorate impoverished by their policy. The thing is that they are provided assistance by the Western forces; they lobby the forces that really mean something. Note that they demand that pre-term election be held in spring, which testifies to the fact that they try to raise funds by this time and to hold out with the existing rating. Yet, time is against them.
– Unfortunately, the fate of small nations is decided in another place.
– When the nation loses any belief in its own forces, then it appeals to Russia or America for help. Just imagine, they started war in Samachablo – and lost; they started war in Abkhazia – and lost; they started new economic reforms – and the country found itself in a more difficult situation; they obtained credits that afterwards turned into debts; they started privatization – and lost work places and created oligarchs. We are bombarded from all sides. Certainly, it puts a strong psychological pressure on us. We are looking for someone on the other side just because we can not find any political force in our country to rely on. I am sure that if referendum on the restoration of the USSR is held, 70% will vote for its reanimation.
– No matter how we will call Georgia – a partner or colony of America, the latter will inevitably come to Georgia. In what way do you think it will be able to preserve its cultural originality.
– There is a simple formula here – one cannot privatize strategic objects. They must be liable to state monopoly.
– But what if state cannot do this?
– It is the problem of state. The trouble is that these objects belong to private firms in our country that are not subject to the law against corruption.
– Let us go back to the November events. What did Georgia derive from them?
– These events entailed the retirement of Zhvania who had a real chance of becoming a president due to the law passed by him.
– But what happened?
– They were unable to foresee that they will be caught in their own nets. They thought that only law enforcement ministers will retire. However, it was not so. The people demanded their retirement, too.
– Do you think that the people made Zhvania retire. I personally think that it was Shevarnadze’s merit.
– The people did, but the President took advantage of the situation. From the very beginning he made him a second person in the country whom the people could hardly imagine in the post of head of the state?
– Do you mean that the President does not care about who his successor will be?
– It seems he does not want any other candidature to appear.
– It is hard to imagine. I think he needs some guarantees after his retirement.
– I do not think that he will face any danger after he leaves the post because he will be succeeded by the politicians that were brought up by him.
– Do you think that after Zhvania’s retirement all political forces found themselves in more or less similar position?
– This is exactly what I meant when I told you that Shevarnadze does not care about the political spectrum in the Parliament. At any rate, he will be glad to play the role of arbitrator.
Merab Tkeshelashvili
– Mr. Merab, what were the political consequences of the November events for the country?
– In fact, there are no consequences. The question arises – was it worth it? We did not demand the retirement of the whole government but of some ministers. However, the whole society was deceived.
– Do you mean to say that the critical situation is still preserved?
– This is exactly what I would like to accentuate. The position of opposition fractions is not quite clear to me. They criticized the Citizens’ Union, in the end they appointed the same ministers. They can not but reckon with the Opposition. Yet, the country needs real opposition. The attempts of some fractions to assert the President that they solve something in the Parliament ended in a crash. They now demand pre-term elections. This testifies to the fact that they are politically bankrupt and are now trying to reanimate themselves by means of new elections. The trouble is that the people chose the Parliament themselves.
– Proceeding from it, do you consider pre-term elections necessary?
– Yes, I do. However, no fraction that discourses about the elections will support this idea in reality. This is only argument for the sake of argument.
– Perhaps, it is a rhetorical question, but how long do you think this situation will last?
– Our fraction has already begun discussing this new law with independent deputies. The main thing is that we must make amendments in the Constitution concerning the designation of Cabinet ministers. It will be a labour body that will be responsible before the Parliament, the President and the country.
– Going back to the subject of election. You spoke about democratic law on elections that will be ineffective in case of lack of mechanisms that would warrant its execution.
– Everything depends on the people who are responsible for the elections. We cannot say that the elections in developed countries are held in a completely democratic way.
– Let us assume that the elections will be held with the consideration of today’s rating of political forces. Who has the real chance of becoming a Parliament member.
– Unfortunately, it is difficult to make any prognoses. The Citizens’ Union will probably unite into coalitions.. We will try to regain the people’s trust in us.
– What role will Zhvania and Saakashvili have in this process? As far as I know Zhvania will form his own fraction. No one knows what will follow…
– Do not you think that you will be separated from each other?
– There can be no talk of it. If we manage to find something in common with the entrepreneurs, members of majority we will also be able to cooperate with them.
– You say there is no opposition in Georgia. Saakashvili made some attempts to occupy its place.
– Certainly, if some recess is free, someone must occupy it.
– Do you think no one has discovered this recess yet?
– Simply others as I have already said are political bankrupts.
– And what about Zhvania and Saakashvili. They have been met with applause for seven year. Yet now they are criticized.
– They should undertake some responsibility for what has been going on for the past years. If this will not happen, no one will make them do so because it is necessary to make a detailed analysis of who is responsible for what.
– The politicians are now worried about the issue of Shevarnadze’s political successor.
– Shevarnadze is not looking for a successor. He may look for one, but he has not yet made his mind about it. There is not still any force in the political arena that he could point at. These forces and politicians will certainly come after the local elections.
– In spite of the fact that Zhvania is no longer a chairman of Parliament, he is still considered to be Shevarnadze’s successor. What can you say to this effect?
– You, probably, noticed that the opposition gives much attention to Zhvania. This testifies to the fact that he is really a very gifted and strong politicians. If he and his team manage to come forth during the elections, everybody will have to admit that he is really a grand danger.
Irakli Gogava
– What is your assessment of the processes that take place in the Georgian policy?
– A severe struggle for power is going on in Georgia. It is no longer the country that it used to be 10 years ago when Gamsakhurdia was driven out of the country. After the November events, the President took the right measure. If there are any problems, this is the fault of the bad system. I mean the necessity of designating a Cabinet ministers. The retirement of the whole government meant that the President himself was not content with their work. He saw that he had to take more radical steps and started to punish the guilty.
– Many people think that after his retirement Zhvania turned out to be in the shade. What is your opinion about it?
– I think it was out of tactful considerations. He is one of the strongest politicians in the world and I would like him to spend his energy on the recovery of the country. Zhvania has a great potential. He certainly has his own surrounding that he reckons with.
– Shevarnadze proved that the only thing he reckons with is force.
– Shevarnadze laid his hopes for Zhvania but the past two years’ events had a negative effect on their relations. I do not think the President pays much attention to the search of a political successor. He must be elected by the people themselves.
– Where before Shevarnadze wished to see Zhvania as his successor, now he does not care about who will succeed him.
– Perhaps it is so, but I would like to say that the person who will have most chances must become his successor. What is the sense of appointing him if he is not chosen by the people.
– Most people think that pre-term elections must be held in the country. Do you think it will be useful for the country?
– Pre-term elections will have no result unless the Cabinet Ministers is appointed. There must be order in the country. During each visit I tell the president that it is necessary to tighten the policy. I see nothing antidemocratic in it.
– Let us assume that the election were held and everything happened just the way you described. Do you think the political forces have real chances for victory.
– Probably, those who come forth with social demands – labourists, entrepreneurs, etc. will have no problems.
– Do you think that Zhvania and Saakashvili can take part in the elections separately?
– I refrain from saying this. Zhvania is still a member of the ” Citizens’ Union”.
George Targamadze
Are the pre-term elections necessary?
The only thing that prevents us from signing this claim is that we do not have any hopes that the new Parliament will in any way be better than the former one. There is no need to hurry. The main thing is to develop the Code. The most important thing is not the law itself but warrants for its implementation. Today, there are the same people in the Parliament that pretended to retire. There are falsificators like Zhvania and Saakashvili in all agencies. Today, they hurry to carry out another elections. The elections can be held only if everybody is in equal conditions. For the time being, we have the Parliament that is similar to the society.
As we see, many of our respondents consider the constitutional changes and the appointment of Cabinet ministers to be a panacea. If we divide our Government into two parts – economic and enforcement groups – it will become obvious that Georgia has already had the Cabinet ministers. They have not yet brought any results. What will change as a result of constitutional changes? Secondly, Shevarnadze is such a strong president that he will not permit the formation of strong Cabinet Ministers.