POLITICAL FUSS OR GEORGIA ON THE CROSSROADS

SOPHICO SICHINAVA

There has come a decisive time when political forces are trying to reach political peak. Elections determine the peak that a party is going to reach or the period when it can fall to sleep.

Of course the answer to question: what will happen to Georgia after Parliament elections – political fuss or choice of ways on the crossroads – is not so simple as transformations in the first six of the elected party after elections testifies to the fact that Georgia is on the crossroad. Break-up of the Civil Union was, to a certain extent, tantamount to revolution, but its existence in the present way shows that Georgia will not be free in choosing directions on the crossroads. To put it differently, as they would say in political kitchen, the Civil Union is trying to keep its balance.
As mentioned above, in previous elections the six of winning party has changed. There is nothing unnatural and extraordinary in this. With there being no much logic in Georgian politics, transformations in political spectre were quite a logical and easily predicted event. Each expert and political scientist made the same prognosis.
Search for partners has already started. Election process resembles the one who has to make a choice in marriage – who will be the best partner during the whole life? No one makes such long-term estimations in policy. Despite the fact that marriage of political parties is spent with great ceremony and grandeur with each of them saying it is the very partner it looked for so long time (with the features characteristic of the Civil Union – aggression, moderation, etc.) and finally found him during elections, some, however, acknowledge that they are there only out of mercantile considerations.
As it was expected, the whole political spectre will gather around money in this election, too. The situation in elections is usually as follows: there is money, but there is no political capital or vice versa. A whole number of agreements is concluded in accordance with this principle.
In elections of 1999 there was money of vague origin in the political cash desk of Adjara region and Civil Union. Of course, we can not assert that one can win elections only with money. This luxury should involve the prerogative of calculating votes as well as other nuances, which serves as a guarantee of mantle for the winning party. Local elections in Tbilisi turned out to be difficult for the Civil Union. It was clear that election fraud was no success. The party, finally, lost information war with opposition. Though we would not assert that local elections are a dress rehearsal of Parliament elections. As a rule, picture often changes radically. Moreover, there was not unanimity between different groups of the Civil Union: Jorbenadze’s interests opposed those of Zodelava’s and Mamaladze’s. Some representatives of the Civil Union were interested in hampering the elections. After this they would accuse political rivals of failed elections and turn them from the royal court.
There is a different situation now and everybody becomes more pragmatic with strategic interests moving to the foreground. Therefore, the party will have to agree to co-operation. Yet, we should acknowledge the fact that the Civil Union is in a very difficult situation as today it might be brought to account for its old sins. However, it is accustomed to justifying itself. When party has to justify its actions, its game is finished. It is no more but a losing party.
The future will show whether the Civil Union will lose elections. In any case, the party has two ways out: it might either cease its existence with its votes being distributed among other parties or it will exist and perform complete mobilisation for winning votes.
From the economic point of view, elections represent an interesting phenomenon that requires much money and brings about great and, unfortunately, negative changes in economic life. There is another aspect in elections: approach of political unions and groups taking part in Parliament elections towards economy is of much interest. Nowadays, political and economic reality formed political spectre in the following way:
1) Parties with evident left orientation that are left-wingers only outwardly. They are, in fact, adherents of private property. If these parties come to power, game between the social model of market economy might damage the economy greatly.
2) Right-winged groups. They passed a particular school of market economy and have even managed to gather wealth. If these parties reach power, they will, certainly, defend principles of free market economy. However, there is another danger: they are, mainly, oligarch groups and might, therefore, become monopolists. This might limit the development of free competition and free market economy in Georgia.
3) Groups that do not attach much priority to economy. Their principal objectives are, mainly, political games. They do not realise that economy constitutes policy. Proceeding from certain political considerations, it is impossible to play with economy. The parties adhere to pro-western orientation, at least, in word. They are strong economically. and try to lay their hands on economic power. Thus, after coming to power, the parties will start redistribution process, which will also damage the economy.
4) Moderate right-wingers that proceeding from country’s interests rely on evolutional development of the country covering formation of wide competitive market mechanism, free economy as well as development of important and priority branches in case of America-oriented economy.
In the existing political spectre these political directions will, in their turn, be distributed among several groups. This distribution will show which sum each of the groups will need for holding of elections. Elections in Georgia will cost 70-80 million GEL. These are not simply elections. The elections will show which political group will reach power and gain access to investments to be performed in Georgia in the years ahead. Each political party will spend great funds to achieve this purpose.
New political groups and figures will not, certainly, come out of the blue. Judging by the existing capital and rating, there are two so-called political directions. The first is the “central government group”. It does not cover only the Civil Union (other political groups are clustered around it). It can overcome 7% barrier as the group might be joined by Levan Mamaladze and deputation of Kvemo Kartli. This group is loyal to the President. They are young politicians that intend to hold a particular place in post-Shevarnadze epoch. So their political ambitions can not be ruled out either. They have 300-400 votes that will be enough for the Civil Union to hold a significant number of places in the Parliament. Added to this are 200 thousand votes of non-Georgian population that will also become “property” of the “central government” group. We should also take into account insignificant number of votes of “Socialist” and others that will join them as well as a small number of votes from different regions. Thus, “the Civil Union”, Mamaladze-Jorbenadze-Mezvrishvili-Jikia group and other gamgebelis are a serious force that will gather 40 places in the Parliament. As for funds for elections, they are great. “The Civil Union” will have to solve deep problems. They are “assignees” of “the old sins” that have government so they will have to spend approximately 15-20 millions to win the above-mentioned votes.
Adjara “governmental” union will undoubtedly receive next 40 votes though there is a definite crisis in this coalition. Yet, it is clear that the number of votes in Adjara does not depend on the number of politicians and leaders of Adjara.
Added to the 40 places of the “Civil Union” will be the same number of places taken by Adjara deputies as well as 10 mandates of the united Abkhazian deputation. The total number of places will make 90 of the 150 meant for elections in accordance with proportional system. It turns out that, in fact, there is struggle for the 60 places that will be left after the “great government distribution”. The struggle will be cruel enough, as the number of “non-government” parties is great. These parties are, in their turn, divided into left-winged and right-winged. It is evident that people of Georgia are not sympathetic towards right-wingers not because people are well versed in the right and left orientation or think that country will develop faster with one or two ideas. No, it is not so. They are merely impressed by the vocabulary of the politicians, method of “stubborn” struggle with the authorities. There is another factor – there are no evident left-winged or right-winged parties. They just make use of advantageous topics. There are, probably, many advantageous topics, but the population has already grown tired of mere criticism of the government, it needs action, some decisive, real and promising moves. Politicians of new generation are very gifted in choosing and scoring topics. They do this with enviable skill and demagogue. Their gift to “cry” in the right time at the right voice agreeable to population can not be compared with the “party game” of the Civil Union leaders.
The place of leader in left parties still belongs to labourists that we might call left centrists. To their regret, this is the reality. According to public opinion polls, this party has the greatest rating. Proceeding from its popularity, the party might win approximately 20 places (plus-minus 10-15%). The current social-economic situation in Georgia is really a very favourable one for left parties. Added to this is the expensiveness of commodity basket as well as the fact that economic growth does not have an immediate impact on the life-standard of ordinary citizens.
Proceeding from the high rating of left parties, they will, probably, spend less funds, approximately 5 million GEL. This sum will be enough for defending and achieving results.
In accordance with rating, the second place is taken by the “National Party”. They are allegedly right-winged parties protecting private and small business. Elements of right orientation can hardly be observable in the activity of these parties. We can give them a very strange and eclectic name – left-right-centrist party. Despite this, they will be able to overcome 7% barrier. Many people feel sceptical to these considerations, but still we think that they will be able to take 20-25 places. Compared with labourists, they will need approximately 6-7 million GEL. This sum will be enough for them to strengthen their positions and make more than one advantageous and populist step related to the work of City administration. In fact, it was due to them that the work of administration became more transparent and accessible to citizens.
The above-mentioned will make the total of 127 places with right-winged parties fighting for the rest 10-15 places. These parties are United Democrats and New Right-wingers. The fate of United Democrats is still under question. They will certainly need political allies. The New right-wingers will supposedly overcome 7% barrier. As for the funds necessary for the United Democrats, they are likely to exceed 8-10 million GEL.
The New right-wingers will undoubtedly need 10 millions because people often view them as well-being politicians. Certain antipathy towards them is felt.
The right -winged party is the richest of all the above-mentioned political unions. It hopes to receive financing from Patarkatsishvli but whether the Georgian millionaire will wish to assign funds depends fully on the President’s wish. If Patarkatsishvili will finance the right-wingers, we can suppose that the President is not completely indifferent towards them. There are good and friendly relations between their and President’s families so Shevarnadze might make his stakes on them. Otherwise, the New will have to search for election funds by themselves.
I wonder where will other right-winged parties such as f.e. “Industry will save Georgia”, find their place in this position? They will, undoubtedly, find it difficult to overcome 7% barrier due to internal problems. The party came to power with euphoria. Today, Georgian population hardly believes in its slogans and ideas. They confronted problems in forming initial organisation. It is a strong propagandistic machine that is kept switched on. Its rating can hardly change and it might join the New right-wingers or nationalists. The break-up of the Civil Union has not damaged this party more than other small and non-parliament parties. Separation of strong groups from the Georgian Civil Union and beginning of new independent political careers has overshadowed many political parties for quite a lengthy period (or forever). This turned right-winged pioneer parties into political formations that seemed to have their own stable votes. After each election they try to comfort themselves that aggressive electors have never been their supporters. Yet, they are the most active ones and the number of their supporters will soon become less. Therefore, Traditionalists, National Democrats, Peoples’ and other parties will have to join the financial and political giants that were brought to light by reality. This concerns left-wingers. They might easily find shelter. This is the thing that Georgian parties can manage well.
As for Vaja Lordkipanidze’s Christian-Democrats, they are evidently right-wingers like Niko Lekishvili who is a moderate politician. He, in fact, has nothing to lose. Right-wingers provide him with best conditions – a warranted cushy lob in old age. For politician like him it is necessary to realise that someone might still need them. One can hardly imagine he would have the ambition to become a president. The same might concern Vaja Lortkipanidze. As for Nino Burdjanadze, the perspective of her joining the New is still under doubt, though let us see what will happen…
Given the above-given position, the United Democrats take votes from the right-wingers with both of them taking votes from the government coalition that, in its turn, tries to do the same. Nationalists and labourists or, to be more exact, duellist are competing with each other, too. In this chain, each party tries to seize votes of other parties. In this position Adjara is the only one to remain beyond competition.
In Parliament elections Agordzineba was repeatedly mentioned that it was a narrow regional party that had supporters only in Adjara. Because of this, the formed coalition equally supported both Adjara and the parties that united in it. There is a different situation today. The Civil Union does not need to rival with Adjara, as it has other rivals. Therefore, Adjara can gather local voices quietly without any difficulties.
As for money Adjara might need for elections, this issue is still open to question. If the party decides to win `votes beyond the borders of Adjara as it happened during previous elections, then it will need quite a solid sum. In case it is not so, Adjarians will do with minimal funds. Despite the fact that the party has Adjarian votes in stock, still it will hardly be able to hold elections without money. Besides, we should take into account the fact that it is necessary to keep Adjarian national television, which, certainly, requires many funds.
What factors might influence this distribution of places in the future Parliament?
The important thing also is which union will be supported by Russia. Competitive struggle for Russia’s support will continue. Though Russia can not make significant influence on elections result, but it still will be able to make certain corrections. Given the external factors, the US can influence elections significantly depending on the way America views the course of the above-listed parties, i.e. whether it constitutes the sphere of America’s interests. We can say that the above-described position – the non-dominating position of all political unions – is likely to suit America. It attaches priority to the development of democracy in Georgia. The most important thing for America is that local oligarchs would not cause deep problems to American capital. Non-dominating distribution of forces in the future Parliament is suitable for America as it tries to bar Georgia from downfall of state structures and help Georgia to smoothly enter into post-Shevarnadze epoch.
Position of Europe is of interest, too. It will, probably, be identical to American one.
There are internal factors along with external ones. We should take into account their force and importance. This is electronic media that paves the way in politics and elections. Its support is important. “New Ibervisia” as well as Teleimedi will support New right-wingers. Iberia will be neutral as always. The first channel will support government union though this channel will broadcast speech of other unions. The TV-company Rustavi-2 will broadcast speech of non-government political unions though it would have its own favourite in the face of United democrats and Nationalists. As for Caucasia and other channels, they will work for orders, though they will not have many clients. This TV channel will not be able to significantly influence the elections results.
The third factor is political sympathies of business groups. Group Samgori prefers New right-wingers, group Omega manoeuvres between two government groups – Adjara and Tbilisi. Geocel co-operates with the United Democrats, Magti – with the central government group. It will be supported by communication networks and energetic business. As for group Cartu, it will, probably, maintain neutral position.
Another subject is political views of state business representators. From this point of view, it is important which party Akaki Chkheidze would support. Political establishment is much worried by this issue. Besides controlling great finances, Chkheidze has also 30 thousand railwaymen in subordination. No one denies his significance in Georgian policy. This is explained by active latest struggle against him. This issue still remains unanswerable. However, it is common knowledge that Poti port will support governmental group. It is not yet clear which party Temur Basilia will support. The latter has great and significant international contracts at his disposal. Nor the position of Merab Adeishvili is clear, but taking into consideration the circle of his friends consisting mainly of the New, we can suppose that his political sympathies will belong to this party. The former group “Sadjai” – House of Control, State defence, security and judicial system form quite a significant group that has to be reckoned with. Their orientation is also of much importance and interest though it is not yet clear. The same concerns Zodelava and his followers. Considering Zodelava’s and Jorbenadze’s relations, we might assume that they will not be together. However, Zodelava’s and President’s relations, taken apart, give grounds to think that Zodelava will join President’s group. Yet, this is a poignant question in the given stage. October elections will be very important from the political point of view and poignant from economic aspect.
Another issue is election in accordance with majority system. Each majority deputy will need approximately 100 thousand laris with 100 thousand laris for 80 people, i.e. 8 millions. Roughly calculating, approximately 70-80 million GEL will be spent for election. This is the free money that is necessary for Georgian economy. This sum totals 10% of all taxes. There is another factor. This money might recover consumer market and cause an external effect, but this money will be spent non-productively getting into the pocket of a certain TV company and turning into corporation profit. This money might go into the pocket of all Georgians that, simply speaking, hide it in pillows. This money will turn into the profit of two dominant firms in the advertising market. Thus, approximately 10 firms will gain profit. Naturally enough, after coming to power these political groups will try to return spent funds, which will, certainly, bring much damage to Georgian economy. Proceeding from the above-mentioned, under these factors economy of 2003 is doomed for serious problems. One can often hear that our people are politically too exulted. We can not agree with this. On the contrary, all Georgians are in the state of deep nihilism. They are tired of elections, demagogue of politicians. Georgians exhausted by political problems are not interested in anything. Yet these problems can not be solved without their participation.
Georgians should be maximally active in these elections. The population has, in fact, three options – after elections it will have inert, ultra radical or clan Parliament. The country faces great dangers. The keys to avoiding these three dangers is population’s active actions. It is impossible to avoid economic crisis caused by elections. The fate of post-election economy will be in population’s hands. Principles and approaches of government towards economy will depend on population. These are options of Georgian economy.
One important thing has already been solved: this country belongs to Our Lady and the United States, but this is not enough. We should prepare to meet the United States as interests of Georgian ethos, genes and world business do not always coincide. The Georgian population should solve this issue in the nearest 5-10 years.