The main tendencies and predictable parameters of formation of the regional produce

resumeI. Oniani, N. Khasaia

In the article there determined the main tendencies of changing of the volume of Imereti’s regional produce, and short-term forecast calculations were made by means of mathematical and statistical methods.

For determining the tendencies of the main changes during the analyzable period, a medium level of both the first and the second half of the period has been calculated. It turned out that the development dynamics is marked by a clear growth tendency. For determining of the trend type such simple statistical method as “sliding average” was used. It was determined that the dynamics of Imereti’s regional produce in 1998-2004 is market by sustainable growth, which is verified by the curve of the evened levels obtained by means of using the “sliding average” method. Such tendency is expressed by mathematical rectilinear equation.
Forecast calculations were made based on the obtained equation. In particular it was established that in 2005 the main volume of the regional produce in Imereti has increased by 1,7% in comparative prices compared to the year 2004, and in 2006 it will increase by 2,8% compared the year .2005. Thus, within the next few years high rates of the regional produce are not expected.