REGIONAL PECULIARITIES OF THE WORLD POPULATION REPRODUCTION

By Prof. Leo Chikava

Among the green global events those are alleged by world society much, one of the most important is demographic problem. However, ideology of the above problem differs in accordance with differentiation of regions.

High paces of population’s reproduction in the certain part of planet challenges additional work not for only governments ruling regions were it grows, but to those of other countries as well; It’s vice versa in the second part, as low paces of reproduction and depopulation jeopardise the process of generation evolution.
The above problem should be considered basing on estimates of such demographic processes as birth, death, natural increase of population etc.
Existence of different paces of population’s reproduction is proved by the fact that the general key rate of birth, according to figures by Population Reference Bureau in 2000, comprises 22 pro mille including, 25 pro mille in developing regions and 11 – in developed one. Sounds like it is two times low in developed and high at 13,6% in developing parts to average indicator. Despite the fact that Georgia has already been listed among the developed countries, the above indicator here is as low as (9%) in developing countries.
The level of birth is differentiated even in scales of distinct regions. For example, in Asia it comprises 22 pro mille, of which 43% in Oman and Afghanistan and the lowest – 9% in Japan. The same situation is in Africa. Average indicator comprises 38 pro mille, of which 50% in Liberia and Chad and the lowest 17% – in Mauritania.
In post-soviet countries, general key rate of birth ranges between 15 and 23 including, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyz; 9-14 pro mille in Georgia, Armenia, Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Lithuania; and less then 9 pro mille in Russia, Ukraine, Latvia and Estonia.
Besides the difference between transition processes from traditional to recent methods in regions, continents, and countries and numerous socio-economic challenges, there’s another, the religion factor, that does influence contrasts of birth much.
One of the most important questions is gross key rate of birth. Last year it comprised 2,9% worldwide and the trend of its decrease is an accompanying natural phenomenon of civilisation. Despite that, reproduction is enough contrastive in different regions. Yet, gross key rate of birth is two-three times higher in developed countries then in developing ones. Comparing to Europe, it’s 1,4 times more then in North America, 2 times – in Asia, 2,1 times – in Latin America, and 4 times – in Africa.
The same in post-soviet countries arranges as follows: In Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyz 1,5-2,8%; In Georgia, Armenia, Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Lithuania, Russia, Ukraine, Latvia and Estonia – between 1,2 and 1,3 per cent.
Sociological researches have proved that in developing countries, women have more children then desire. For example, in Kenya, being in reproduction age women wanting to have 4-2 children, indeed are doing 6-5; In Egypt they will 2-8 and have 4-5. It does mean that in these countries, birth is free of regulation within family, and contraceptives for the purpose of lessening number of children are rarely in use. Generally, birth index is low, when contraceptives are frequently in use. For example, in Italy, 91% of married women use contraceptives, therefore general birth key rate does not exceed 9 pro mille. The same in: Germany ranges between 85-9; 75-13 in France and 67-8 Russia.
Another important component of population’s reproduction is death, which is lessening thanks to civilisation. Despite that, its level is enough differentiated by region: in developed regions it comprises 10 pro mille and 9 in developing ones.
The reasons for that in developed countries are deformed age structure, ecological crisis and negative social events. In developing ones – unskilled medical service and low life standards. According to UN estimates, 1 billion of planet population lives in poverty, insufficiently feed approximately 500 millions, and more then 12,7 millions are dying starving per year.
General key rate of death in post-soviet countries ranges as follows: 11-15 pro mille in Russia, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and less then 10 pro mille in Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz, Tajikistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Integration of the above two indexes portrays population’s natural growth. Generally, when birth exceeds the death, we face extended reproduction of population, in case of equality – simple reproduction, and depopulation or the absolute decrease of population, if vice versa. How is our planet at this sight?
In 2000, natural growth of population comprised 13 pro mille including, 16 in developing regions and 11 in developed ones. Population growth paces by region range as follows: Africa – 2,4%, Asia and Latin America – 1,7%, North America – 0,6% and -0,1% in Europe.
Among post-soviet countries, depopulation is obvious in Russia, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. A simple growth had been recorded in Kazakhstan, Armenia, Moldova and Georgia and the solid one in – Tajikistan, Kyrgyz, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.
Stipulating existing growth paces, for doubling the population, world’s developing region will need only 42 years and the developed one – 809 years. As to people of countries with chronic depopulation, if no radical changes, they are doomed to eliminate.
To the opinion of specialists, world population will grow by 28,7% during the years 2000-2025 and will reach 7,8 billion. By 2050 it will exceed 9 billions. The fastest growing is expected in Africa, middle in – Latin America and Asia and the lowest in North America. As to Europe’s one, it’s going to be decreased with 14 millions by 2025 and 70 millions by 2050.
Thereof, during the half of coming century Share of African population increases from 13,2% up to 20, contrary to Europe’s that decreases from 12% down to 7,5, which will deepen unequal movement of population.